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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: August 23rd, 2023

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  • The pace of technological change and innovation was always going to slow down this decade. But Covid, Ukraine and a decoupling from Russia/China has further slowed it.

    You need three things in abundance to create tech. First an advanced economy, which narrows down most of the world. Second you need lots of capital to burn while you make said advances. Finally you need lots of 20 and thirty something’s who will invent and develop the tech.

    For the last 20 years we’ve had all of those conditions in the Western world. Boomers were at the height of their earnings potential and their kids were leaving home in droves letting them pour money into investments. Low interest rates abound because capital was looking for places to be utilized. China was the workshop of the world building low to mid range stuff allowing the West to focus its excess Millennials age workforce on value added and tech work.

    Now in the USA boomers are retiring and there aren’t enough GenX to make up the difference. Millennials and finally getting down to household creation or their oldest cohorts (Xennials) just now entering into their mid 40s and starting to move up in their careers but they probably still have kids to support. So it will be some time before capital becomes plentiful again. Gen Z is large but they aren’t enough to back fill the loss of Millennials.

    Ohh I made a point to highlight that this was a US demographic phenomena. Europe and Japan do not have a large Millennial or GenZ populations to replace their aging boomers. We have no modern economic model to map out what will happen to them.

    China is going through a demographic collapse worse than what you see in Europe or Japan. Only they aren’t rich to compensate add in the fact that they decided to antagonize their largest trading partners in the West causing the decoupling we are now seeing.

    The loss of their labor means the West has to reshore or find alternative low wage markets for production and expend a lot of capital to build out the plant in those markets to do so.

    Add on top geopolitical instability of the Ukraine and you have a recipe for slower tech growth.

















  • Terrible metrics are used by many companies which encourage short term profits over the long term health of the organization. I’ve seen managers make decisions to cut expenses which look good on a P&L in the short term but have terrible consequences for the organization that only become apparent two or three years later. Usually after the person who made the decision has collected their bonus and moved onto another organization.

    The sad thing is those people are promoted or recruited over more stead fast leaders who can actually grow an organization because their metrics look good.


  • UV light is regularly used on HVAC systems and water purification systems.

    There are systems used in hospitals that are automated which will roll into an empty room and then turn on to disinfect the room. They are usually used in hospitals but I’ve seen them used in places like China during their zero covid crackdown on public transportation.

    Some transit systems in China even converted a paint booths to disinfect with UV so they could drive buses through. All of which is probably overkill as prolonged exposure to sunlight will do the same thing.

    Exposure to UV light that is intense enough to kill viruses within seconds is very bad for humans. I pulled the cover off a system I was taking marketing pictures for while it was turned on. Within a thirty to sixty seconds I could feel like I was getting a sunburn on my arm that was closest to the light. I wouldn’t want to risk a direct UV system turning on while someone is sleeping and burning them. As a result most systems are indirect and rely on a combination of UV and HEPA filters to disinfect airborne viruses.

    There are other ways to disinfect surfaces. Bleach or chlorine is cheap, simple and won’t harm humans. Chlorine gas can be used to kill really bad viruses like anthrax. Chlorine gas was used to disinfect the Federal buildings that had been contaminated in the 2001 anthrax attacks. Many detail shops, rental car agencies and public transit systems in the US use Chlorine gas on vehicles to disinfect or more commonly remove nasty odors from vehicles. The gas can seep into all cracks/crevices and get into the HVAC system ductwork in ways UV light can not. If you ever get into a car that faintly smells like a pool, chances are it has been gassed recently to kill an odor.


  • BYD has rode Teslas coattails for years. EVs in China didn’t take off until Tesla built a Gigafactory to supply their batteries.

    The Chinese car market is dead right now, BYD and other EV makers are dumping their EVs on the global market at a steep discount (Subsidized hmmm by the state) to stay afloat. They’ve targeted their higher end EV products on the EU market because they don’t have protections in place like the US. The EU is going to stop this and well see their numbers drop.